Sabalenka opens US Open 2026 with 32 winners: The No.1 defence has only just begun

Aryna Sabalenka's No.1 defence began with a tiny detail. When the drop shot skimmed Camila Osorio's racket, the Colombian's racket flew out of her hand. Arthur Ashe was not as loud as on finals night; it went quiet for a few seconds, then burst into applause. Sabalenka walked back to her chair without screaming or pumping her fist. She had just won 6-4, 6-2 with 32 winners, but her expression looked like someone completing the first of seven assignments, with six more stages still ahead. The context made this match far heavier than a simple first-round win. Sabalenka is not only the No.1 seed; she is the defending champion protecting 2,000 ranking points. After winning the Indian Wells-Miami double in March, she did not reach a single final. That second-half slump made her world No.1 position fragile. At this very tournament, three players can overtake her if she stops early. That explains why she greeted the win over Osorio, a player outside the top 50, with strange calm. Looking at the stats, 32 winners in two sets is impressive. On average, that is nearly 1.8 winners per game – an elite level of aggression on the WTA tour. But the way Sabalenka produced those points is more striking. The tactical highlights were three moments: the crosscourt return winner to break in the fifth game of the first set, the drop shot that made Osorio lose control, and the unreturnable serve to close the match. She wins points on her own terms from the first strike, not through long rallies. That is her first-strike identity – attack first, dominate first, and make opponents follow her rhythm. The pressure Sabalenka created did not only come from her heavy groundstrokes. Osorio committed five double faults in the first set alone. When a player faces a returner who stands very deep, hits flat, and is always ready to step in, the mental strain builds. Those double faults were not just unforced errors; they were the result of the return pressure Sabalenka generated. That is a quiet weapon that statistics often do not fully reflect. However, the media may be too quick to call this a promising comeback. Look closer: the win has not proved much. Osorio is outside the top 50, and 32 winners against a weaker opponent can be normal. There is no unforced error count in the match report, so we do not know Sabalenka's true winner-to-error ratio. The drop shot might be an intriguing sign, but one instance does not create a trend. Even her calmness can be read two ways: either she is focused on the bigger goal, or she still carries unresolved anxiety from her poor run. What makes this match special is not the score, but the history hanging overhead. If Sabalenka wins this year, she will become the third woman in the Open Era with three consecutive US Open titles, after Serena Williams and Chris Evert. But that history creates a paradox: she is not only chasing glory, but also protecting the No.1 ranking against three direct rivals. If she loses before the semifinals, she will almost certainly lose the top spot. So this win only helps her avoid disaster; it does not yet re-establish her dominance. The second round brings Polina Iatcenko, a name unlikely to cause much concern. But in the second week, players who can neutralise her power – those who move well, return solidly, and are not afraid of being pushed back – will appear. Then, whether she can maintain her attacking rhythm will decide everything. The match with Osorio ended without much emotion. That may be Sabalenka's way of telling herself: glory only counts when everything is over. Arthur Ashe remains silent, waiting for the answer in the coming days, where one small slip could turn the No.1 defence into a sad memory.